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Heuristics – Destiny or Educated Guess?

Posted on June 7, 2021June 8, 2021

Heuristics, sometimes referred to as an educated guess, a rule of thumb, or even common sense, is a method of problem solving that many people use because it is quick and easy to use.

The hindsight bias is a type of heuristics that many of us confuse for the ability to predict the future, when in fact we cannot.  In truth, the hindsight bias reflects a tendency to overestimate your own ability to have predicted or foreseen an event after learning about the outcome.

Gamblers are frequent users of the hindsight bias. Often, they believe that a win or loss at a slot machine or a blackjack table was not based on probabilities but rather their innate ability to predict when it was their destiny to win or lose in a given instant.

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